2024 Big Ten Football Championship Game Preview & Pick

No. 3 Penn State vs No. 1 Oregon

Saturday, December 7
5:00 pm PT, CBS
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Broadcast Team: Brad Nessler, Gary Danielson, and Jenny Dell

Line: Oregon –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 49.5

The last meeting between Oregon and Penn State was in the 1995 Rose Bowl. The Nittany Lions won that game and are 3-1 in all-time meetings between the two schools.

Recent history suggests contrasting play styles between the two programs with PSU being defensive-minded while Oregon will score points in bunches.

That held form in the 2024 Big Ten postseason Awards as Penn State’s Abdul Carter was named the conference’s Defensive Player of the Year while Dillon Gabriel took home the Offensive Award for Oregon.

But that is only part of the story this season.

While both units are excellent in their own right, both teams are also pretty good on the other side of the ball as well. Penn State is scoring 33.3 points per game and allowing only 14.0 while Oregon’s offense is putting up 35.2 and limiting the opposition to 16.2.

In short, both defenses are elite and both offenses can put up plenty of points.

The Ducks own the nation’s longest winning streak, having rolled off 14 straight wins. Penn State is riding a four-game winning streak since their loss at home to Ohio State a month ago.

In the first four games of the season, the Ducks allowed 11 sacks; in the last eight games they allowed just five total. This includes a trio of games against Ohio State, Illinois, and Michigan, in which they allowed just one sack against three outstanding fronts.

Two of the five sacks allowed over the last two-thirds of the season came in the Wisconsin game. In the final six games, Oregon has also converted third downs at a rate of 50.7%.

As it stands now, Oregon ranks fifth in the nation allowing just 3.58 tackles for loss per game.  On the other hand, Penn State is registering 7.08 TFL per game, 19th 19th-best in the nation, and the Lions are getting 2.67 sacks per outing.

The Nittany Lions want to run the football and have a duo of backs that can get the job done in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The problem with defending PSU is if you stack the box too much Drew Allar will make you pay through the air.

Allar has completed nearly 72% of his passes this season but has not been significantly tested. He struggled in their loss to Ohio State and threw three of his five interceptions this season against USC.

Penn State’s offense struggled to move the ball against some of the better defenses they faced this season. The lone TD for Penn State vs. Ohio State came off a pick-six.

Penn State is one of the most efficient teams in the nation on early downs, ranking 11th nationally in Expected Points Added (EPA) per Play on first down. In the loss to OSU, they converted on just 27% of third downs.

Oregon is 55th defensively in EPA/Play on early downs, but the Ducks stiffen and get teams off the field, ranking 15th in the nation in third-down defense.

So that brings us to the keys in this one.

Penn wins if…they can shorten the game and keep things manageable. Run the ball effectively on the early downs to stay on schedule and let their defense make plays. Long-yardage situations will make things very difficult for Penn State to get a win.

Oregon wins if…they can control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, notably on offense. PSU’s defensive front is one of the best in the nation, but Oregon’s offensive line—one of three finalists for the Joe Moore Award—is among the nation’s best as well.

PSU will get after things on defense but that has made them prone to allowing explosive plays. The Ducks should be able to exploit those opportunities if they arise.

My big play in this one is the under 49.5, I think the PSU defense is too good to allow Oregon to light up the scoreboard. On the other side, I could see PSU struggle to gain a lot of traction with the football.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Oregon
Points Total: Under
Outright winner: Oregon