Posted on November 6, 2024
By Stephen Vilardo, SuperWest Sports
Four conference games are scheduled this week in the Mountain West, and both Pac-12 teams are back in action following byes.
The Beavers will host San Jose State, while Utah State will travel to Washington State.
The best team in the MW/Pac-12 gets a chance to showcase itself in primetime as Boise State plays on Fox, and the nation should once again take note of Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos.
In Week 10, I went 3-2 in my MW, bringing my record to 64-13 on the season, good for an 83% success rate.
Here is how I think the six games on the docket will play out.
New Mexico at San Diego State
Friday, November 8
7:30 pm PT, FS1
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: San Diego State –3.5
Over/Under Point Total: 67.5
Both teams enter the contest with three wins on the season. The schedules give each a chance to get bowl-eligible, but both need a win this week.
For one of these teams that goal will end with a loss on Friday night.
Technically, the Aztecs could lose and still get to 6-6 but that would require an upset at UNLV next week.
New Mexico wins if…they can convert on third downs. The Lobos are 3-0 this season when converting 50% or better on third down, and 0-6 when they don’t. SDSU ranks 116th in the nation, allowing a conversion on 45% of third downs.
San Diego State wins if…move the football on offense. The Aztecs are 115th in the nation in offense. New Mexico has not stopped anyone this season. Wyoming put up 49 points last week. If the Aztecs can move the ball they will score and get a win.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: New Mexico
Points total: Over
Outright winner: San Diego State
San Jose State at Oregon State
Saturday, November 9
12:30 pm PT, CW
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Oregon State –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 55.5
Oregon State is coming off a bye after losing three in a row.
SJSU is also coming off a bye and a four-game stretch of alternating wins and losses.
The Spartans get bowl eligible with a win while the Beavers look to climb a game over .500.
San Jose State wins if…they can force turnovers. The Spartans lead the nation with 19 turnovers gained this season. The Beavers have coughed it up 10 times this season.
Oregon State wins if…they can get a running game going. OSU is 12th in the nation running the ball and SJSU is 69th against the run. If the Beavers can’t get the ground game going it could be a long day.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: San Jose State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: San Jose State
Nevada at No. 12 Boise State
Saturday, November 9
5:00 pm PT, FOX
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: New Mexico –24.5
Over/Under Point Total: 60.5
Nevada enters this contest having lost three in a row and allowing 36 points per game in the last two.
Boise State is looking to impress the nation in prime time. This one could be a showcase game for the Broncos and Ashton Jeanty.
Look for the Broncos to pour it on.
Nevada wins if…they get some offense going. The Pack will not be able to stop Boise State. I don’t think they’ll win in a shootout either, but the offense will need to produce.
Boise State wins if…they stay balanced on offense. This could be a pick-your-poison kind of game and the Broncos can beat teams with the run or the pass. I look for them to keep it balanced in this one.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Boise State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Boise State
Utah State at No. 20 Washington State
Saturday, November 9
7:30 pm PT, The CW
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Washington State –20.5
Over/Under Point Total: 70.5
Both of these teams can light up the scoreboard, WSU however lights it up far more consistently.
The Cougars also will, on occasion, prevent opponents from scoring.
The Aggies rarely do.
Utah State wins if…they get some stops. It’s as easy as that as the defense is allowing 41.5 per game, ranking 133rd in the nation. Keep a team off the board a few times a game at least!
Washington wins if…they force some turnovers. WSU is 16th in the nation with a turnover margin of +.88 having forced 15 turnovers. Spencer Petras will throw some picks; the Cougars need to force bad decisions and pounce on them.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Washington State
Points total: Over
Outright winner: Washington State
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UNLV at Hawai’i
Saturday, November 9
6:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: UNLV –13.5
Over/Under Point Total: 49.5
Hawai’i is coming off two straight wins and looks to finally be clicking.
The Rebels are really good and give them a bye week to get ready for this one?
I’ll give up 13.5 points all day and take that number as my best bet.
UNLV wins if…they keep scoring. The Rebels are fifth in the nation, averaging 41.1 points per game. I think the Rebels’ defense could shut down UH, but there is no way the Rebels lose if they make Hawaii score a bunch of points.
Hawai’i wins if…they keep the running game going. The Warriors ran for 242 yards in the win two weeks ago and got enough from the back last week to keep the defense honest. It will be a tall order in this one as UNLV is 29th against the run.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: UNLV
Points total: Over
Outright winner: UNLV
Fresno State at Air Force
Saturday, November 9
6:45 pm PT, FOX
BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Fresno State –10.5
Over/Under Point Total: 41.5
There was a time not long ago that we were talking about the Falcons having one of the nation’s longest winning streaks.
A year later, it is a reversal as Air Force has lost seven in a row, tied for the second-longest active streak.
This seems like an easy cover for Fresno State on the road.
Fresno State wins if…they can run the ball. The Bulldogs have struggled to run all season, Air Force has not been able to stop the run. If Frenso gets balance, I think they will get an easy road win.
Air Force wins if…they shut down the passing game. A big reason Fresno needs some balance is the Falcons are 14th against the pass. Take that away and make Fresno State prove they can run it.
—My Picks—
Against the spread: Fresno State
Points Total: Over
Outright winner: Fresno State
Stephen Vilardo’s Mountain West + Pac-12 Game Picks
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writes about various topics for SuperWest sports, including stats and records, college sports, and motorsports. He also founded and runs the Sports and Entertainment Research Center (SERC).
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