2024 Week 13 Big Ten Football Previews, Best Bets & Picks

Purdue at Michigan State

Friday, November 22
5:00 pm PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Michigan State –13.5
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5

Purdue is still looking for win number one over an FBS opponent. The finish line on the dismal season is in sight for the Boilermakers.

The Spartans can still get to a bowl game with a win in this one, and another win at home over Rutgers next week.

While this may not be the “appointment viewing” FOX was looking for it, still carries some meaning.

Purdue wins if…Hudson Card can complete passes. The QB has only completed 59% of his passes this season and has topped 200+ yards against only one FBS opponent. The Spartans’ secondary is bad. Purdue needs a big game from Card.

Michigan State wins if… the good Aidan Chiles shows up. Chiles has tons of upside, but this season, he has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. MSU needs him to take care of the ball. Turnovers could be the Boilers’ only hope.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Michigan State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan State

No. 25 Illinois at Rutgers

Saturday, November 23
9:00 AM PT Peacock

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Illinois +1.5
Over/Under Point Total: 47.5

Illinois is back in the Top 25 and just like their last appearance in the poll at the start of the month, they find themselves an underdog.

They fell to Minnesota in that one, can they pull off the upset at Rutgers this time?

The Knights are getting right again having won two in a row following a four-game slide.

Illinois wins if…they throw the football. Rutgers has been beat up by the pass this season and Luke Altmyer has quietly put together a very nice season with 18 TDs to just three interceptions—all coming against Penn State and Oregon.

Rutgers wins if…they run the football. The Knights are averaging 201.7 yards per game in their six wins and just 121 in their four losses. The Illini are allowing 205 in their three losses compared to 122 in their seven wins.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Illinois
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Illinois

No. 5 Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State

Saturday, November 23
9:00 am PT, FOX

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Ohio State –12.5
Over/Under Point Total: 52.5

Barring an upset in Week 14, a spot in the Big Ten Championship game is on the line in Columbus this week.

The fact that Indiana is in this position is a bit mind-boggling. Getting a win in the Horseshoe would be even more so.

Ohio State has won 28 in a row over the Hoosiers. IU has two wins over OSU since 1951. They occurred in 1987 and ’88.

How lopsided is this series all-time? In 97 meetings Indiana has 12 wins.

Indiana wins if…the offensive line can hold up. The Hoosiers line struggled in the second half against Michigan. The OSU front will be even more of a challenge. If they give Kurtis Rourke time he’ll be able to hit receivers.

Ohio State wins if…they can hit a big play with Jeremiah Smith and the freshman’s availability. This Indiana defense is good and very good against the run. As good as OSU is running the ball the big plays may not be there.

If the Buckeyes can chip away, and they will, it will open something up for the talented freshman on the outside should his ankle allow it.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Indiana
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Ohio State

Iowa at Maryland

Saturday, November 23
9:00 am PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Iowa –6.5
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5

Iowa is coming off a rare November loss, falling at UCLA last week.

The Hawkeyes are 19-3 in their last 22 games in the 11th month of the season.

To go bowling the Terps will need to win this one and get a road win at Penn State.

Iowa wins if…Jay Higgins clogs the middle and keeps making plays. One of the best defenders in the nation, the LB will be asked to make plays against the pass this week. He is the only Power 4 linebacker with 90+ tackles and three interceptions this season.

Maryland wins if…Billy Edwards can take care of the ball. The Terps QB has been up and down but has the talent to make plays. He has thrown for the ninth most yards in the nation but has also thrown nine interceptions.

Against the Hawkeyes, he’ll need to take care of the ball.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Iowa
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Iowa

Northwestern at Michigan

Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, FS1

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line:Michigan –11.5
Over/Under Point Total: 37.5

Iothing screams of rivalry and a rivalry trophy game quite like Northwestern vs Michigan and the Wolverines 59-15-2 edge in the series, with 34 wins in the last 38 meetings.

But the winner of this one takes home the George Jewett Trophy. Look up Jewett and it’s a great story about the first African American player to play for both schools in the 1890s.

This game, however, might be one even Jewett would not want to watch if he were still around. It could get ugly and the offenses might look like they are operating in the 1890s.

Northwestern wins if…Jack Lausch makes plays. For a half against Ohio State, the Wildcats made it tight, just as they did against Indiana. Lausch has the ability to improvise and make things happen. Against Michigan he will need to do a lot of that.

Michigan wins if…they want to go bowling! At 5-5 and a trip to Columbus looming, this is a must-win. And the defense for Michigan must dominate because they will not get a ton of help from the offense.

The Wolverine defense is too talented to lose this one.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Northwestern
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Michigan

Wisconsin at Nebraska

Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line:Nebraska –2.5
Over/Under Point Total: 42.5

The Freedom Trophy is up for grabs and so is bowl eligibility for the winner.

Nebraska has now lost four in a row following a 5-1 start to the season. The Huskers are one win away from a bowl berth but have now lost nine straight games with the opportunity to get bowl-eligible.

The Badgers are coming off a spirited effort against Oregon, an offensive performance that produced just 13 points—the final straw in the dismissal of OC Phil Longo.

Wisconsin wins if…they can shut down Dylan Raiola and the passing attack of Nebraska. In wins the Badgers have allowed 111.4 yards through the air compared to 218.2 in their five losses.

Nebraska wins if…Dylan Raiola makes better decisions. The freshman has guaranteed a win over Wisconsin this week. Now he needs to back that up. In the Huskers’ four-game skid, he has thrown two TDs compared to seven interceptions.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Wisconsin
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Wisconsin

USC at UCLA

Saturday, November 23
7:30 pm PT, NBC

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: USC –4.5
Over/Under Point Total: 51.5

Big Ten after dark appears in the battle for the victory bell.

A win for the Trojans and they go bowling; a win for the Bruins and they keep their bowl hopes alive.

USC has gotten the better of their city rivals over the last quarter century as USC has won 18 of the last 25 between the schools.

USC wins if…Woody Marks can run the football. USC is a better team when they are feeding Marks. The Bruins are stout against the run, ranking seventh in the nation, allowing just 100.6 yards per game on the ground. This matchup could be the deciding factor.

UCLA wins if…Ethan Garbers plays well. In the last four games, Garbers has thrown 10 TDs with just two interceptions as UCLA has gone 3-1 down the stretch. Since missing the Penn State game, Garbers has averaged 273 passing yards per game.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: USC
Points total: Under
Outright winner: USC

Best Bet

No. 4 Penn State at Minnesota

Saturday, November 23
12:30 pm PT, CBS

BETMGMSPORTSBOOK Line: Penn State –12.5
Over/Under Point Total: 45.5

Penn State should get this win on the road, but I am not certain about the 12.5 points. I could see the Nittany Lions in the mid 20’s while Minnesota should be able to get a couple FGs and a TD.

But the Over has hit in four of Minnesota’s last five, which tells me PSU could get a backdoor cover.

The Under has hit in six of Penn State’s last eight and I do not see the total going over in this one with the Nittany Lions defense against the Gophers offense—so that is why under 45.5 is a best bet this week.

Penn State wins if…they get the ground game rolling. The Nittany Lions have two of the best backs in the nation and Minnesota is very good against the pass. Take the air out of the ball and pound it on the ground.

Minnesota wins if…Max Brosmer doesn’t turn it over and makes plays. The Gopher QB has been good this season with 14 TDs vs. four INTs. He’ll need to take care of it once again against the Lions.

If the Gophers can make plays in the passing game they can keep it close.

—My Picks—
Against the spread: Penn State
Points total: Under
Outright winner: Penn State

Stephen Vilardo’s Big Ten Game Picks

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