The Wallabies are proving doubters wrong by climbing the ranks, which could be huge with a home World Cup on the horizon

With wins over England and Wales, the Wallabies are well and truly back in the world rugby conversation, as they seek to climb from 10th to sixth in the world over the course of the 2024 Spring Tour.

This is not a moment too soon for Australia’s golden decade of rugby, with the 2025 British and Irish Lions tour and the 2027 Rugby World Cup on the horizon.

Two months ago, former Lion Ben Youngs told his podcast For the Love of Rugby: “I’m looking at and thinking the Lions are better off going to South Africa and touring there.”

His reasoning being that the Lions will “run riot and have it wrapped up after two games with an aggregate of 110 points”.

A month can be a long time in rugby, with the Wallabies having scored 94 points in their last two games and on the verge of ranking above England, Scotland and Wales by the end of the week if they can manufacture a win in Edinburgh.

This is far from certain but it would put them in a prime position going into the 2025 Lions tour. Boosting their world standing would also support their 2027 World Cup campaign.

But taking a step back, how do world rankings actually work?

After a match, the two teams trade a single ‘ranking point’ for defeating/losing to an equally placed team.

This scales up to two points traded if the winning team is 10 ranking points below their opponent and scales down to zero points traded if the winning team is 10 ranking points above their opponent.

For the calculation, home sides are assumed to be three ranking points above their actual place, given their natural advantage, and the trade has a 1.5x weighting for a win/loss of 15 points or more on the day.

So what does this mean for Australia’s world standing and the World Cup?

The Roar’s World Rugby Rankings: Up-to-date international rugby standings

Following the win over Wales, Australia is eighth in the world with 82.17 ranking points, behind England on 82.31 and Scotland on 82.70.

A win this weekend would see Australia and Scotland trade about 1.1 ranking points, with Australia leapfrogging them and England into sixth place.

Holding onto a top-six place could prove pivotal for the Wallabies’ home Rugby World Cup campaign in 2027.

Noah Lolesio of Australia kicks the ball upfield against Wales. (Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)

The 2027 World Cup will introduce a new structure, with six pools of four teams, leading into a round-of-16 knock-out.

Maintaining a top-six place will ensure Australia is seeded top of its pool, increasing the chance of an easier run to the finals.

The pool draw will take place in January 2026, and be based on world standings as of the end of November 2025.

This weekend’s test against Scotland is shaping up as a must-win for the Wallabies. They have a real chance to climb from 10th to sixth over the course of the 2024 Spring tour. This would be a fantastic achievement.

Looking forward, the Wallabies have some tough matches ahead.

However, they will only risk minimal ranking points until their matches against Argentina in September 2025, with plenty of upside if they can squeeze out the odd win.

This is because Ireland, New Zealand and South Africa are all over eight points above the Wallabies.

The Roar’s World Rugby Rankings: Up-to-date international rugby standings

But more important than the numbers, the Wallabies are building into a quality rugby team at just the right time.

The team is still developing, particularly in defence where they are still conceding too many points. But there is visible confidence and excitement on the field, and it is great to see it spreading to fans off the field too.

So cheer on the Wallabies over Scotland this weekend.

Bring on the Lions and bring on the home World Cup.

Let this golden decade of rugby finally begin!