2024 NFL MVP Watch: Bills’ Josh Allen a clear favorite, but Ravens’ Lamar Jackson is still in contention

Only three weeks of the 2024 NFL season remain, which means we’ve had plenty of time to assess this year’s top players, and identify the best candidates to claim MVP honors.

As we enter Week 16, we’ve attempted to do just that, polling more than a dozen of our NFL experts for this season’s top individual accolade. Below, you’ll find our complete list of voters, how we scored top-five votes for MVP, and our collective pick for this season’s most valuable player:

Our panel of voters (17): Cody Benjamin, John Breech, Will Brinson, Joel Corry, Jordan Dajani, Bryan DeArdo, Leger Douzable, Jared Dubin, Josh Edwards Eric Kernish, Jeff Kerr, Shanna McCarriston, Garrett Podell, Pete Prisco, Kyle Stackpole, Kevin Steimle, Tyler Sullivan

Voting rules:

• Each first-place vote counts for 5 points
• Each second-place vote counts for 4 points
• Each third-place vote counts for 3 points
• Each fourth-place vote counts for 2 points
• Each fifth-place vote counts for 1 point

The full MVP leaderboard

1. Bills QB Josh Allen (81)
2. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (68)
3. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (43)
4. Bengals QB Joe Burrow (24)
5. Lions QB Jared Goff (24)
6. Rams QB Matthew Stafford (4)
7. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (3)
8. Vikings QB Sam Darnold (2)
9. Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (2)
10. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (1)
11. Packers QB Jordan Love (1)
12. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (1)
13. Steelers OLB T.J. Watt (1)

Last poll: 1. Allen (61), 2. Barkley (46), 3. Jackson (37), 4. Goff (25), 5. Mahomes (7)

Allen remains the clear front-runner here, and it’s not hard to see why; his 37 total touchdowns are tied for the most among all quarterbacks, and he’s saved some of his best stuff for critical spots. Jackson, however, is a relatively close second, making up some ground in recent weeks. Barkley is still getting a fair amount of love as the league’s leading rusher, while Burrow and Goff make up the last tier of legitimate favorites. Burrow, in particular, wasn’t even in our top five a few weeks ago, but his aerial production has been relentless.

Most first-place votes

1. Bills QB Josh Allen (13)
2. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (4)

Once again, Allen is the lead dog by a long shot. What’s perhaps more notable is the fact only two players in total received first-place votes, proving this is a two-horse race in many eyes. If Jackson, the reigning MVP, can somehow steal an AFC North crown from the rival Pittsburgh Steelers, his stock might skyrocket.

Last poll: 1. Allen (9), 2. Barkley (3), 3. Jackson (1)

Most total ballots

1. Bills QB Josh Allen (17)
2. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (17)
3. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley (15)
4. Lions QB Jared Goff (14)
5. Bengals QB Joe Burrow (13)
6. Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase (2)
7. Rams QB Matthew Stafford (1)
8. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (1)
9. Vikings QB Sam Darnold (1)
10. Packers QB Jordan Love (1)
11. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (1)
12. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (1)
13. Steelers OLB T.J. Watt (1)

Last poll: 1. Allen (13), 2. Jackson (13), 3. Barkley (12), 4. Goff (11), 5. Mahomes (5)

Allen and Jackson were the only two to appear on every single ballot, reaffirming their two-horse race for the top honor. Another interesting takeaway: While Burrow and Goff had an equal number of points, the latter appeared on more ballots. So the voters who like Burrow really like Burrow, whereas more voters respect Goff, just not as strongly. On a related Cincinnati Bengals note, only one other player besides Allen, Jackson, Barkley, Goff and Burrow appeared on more than one ballot, and that was Chase, Burrow’s big-play pass catcher.

Positional representation

1. QB (10)
2. RB (1)
3. WR (1)
4. OLB (1)

No surprise, but quarterbacks still reign supreme here. Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry was no longer picked to represent the backfield alongside Barkley, but Chase got wide receiver on the board, while T.J. Watt always warrants attention as one of the game’s preeminent pass rushers.

Actual MVP favorite

The oddsmakers generally agree with the votes here, though they’re even more convinced Allen is on track to secure his first MVP, as FanDuel pegs the Bills gunslinger a clear favorite (-900) over Jackson (+650), while tabbing Barkley an even more distant third (+1800). One name FanDuel has higher than our voters: Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (+20000), who’s above both Burrow (+25000) and Love (+25000) among quarterbacks. If Hurts breaks his own record for rushing touchdowns in the coming weeks, and perhaps leads Philly to a takeover of the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed, it’s possible he could sneak into the conversation.