NFL playoff picture: Cardinals projected to win NFC West, but Seahawks could complicate picture in Week 12

Entering the 2024 NFL season, the last of the four teams in the NFC West most pundits expected to win the division title was the Arizona Cardinals. After all, the Cardinals were coming off back-to-back 4-13 seasons and haven’t captured the crown since 2015.

Since then, the defending conference champion San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams both have finished atop the NFC West three times, while the Seattle Seahawks have won the division twice.

Arizona did not give the experts much reason to change their stance in the first month of the season. The club lost three of its first four games, a stretch that culminated with a 42-14 home setback against the Washington Commanders.

The Cardinals appeared to be headed to yet another defeat in Week 5 as they trailed the 49ers 23-10 on the road at halftime. But they began to turn around their campaign at that point, rallying for a 24-23 victory that ignited the current span during which they’ve won five of six contests and taken possession of first place in the division.

According to the SportsLine Projection Model, Arizona (6-4) now is the favorite to win the NFC West. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, currently gives the Cardinals a 48.2% chance to win the division title.

Arizona will be seeking its fifth straight win as it heads to Seattle for a showdown with the division-rival Seahawks on Sunday. The four-game winning streak is the team’s longest since it opened the 2021 campaign with seven consecutive victories.

The Cardinals followed a 34-13 loss at Green Bay in Week 6 with a 17-15 triumph over the Los Angeles Chargers. They edged the Dolphins 28-27 in Miami a week later, then posted convincing 29-9 and 31-6 home wins against the Chicago Bears and New York Jets, respectively.

Kyler Murray is just 16th in the NFL with 12 touchdown passes but has thrown only three interceptions on the season and one in his last five games. The 27-year-old is a major threat with his legs as well, as he is second on the Cardinals in both rushing yards (371) and TD runs (four).

James Conner leads a ground attack that ranks fifth in the league with an average of 149.4 yards per contest. The two-time Pro Bowler has posted four 100-yard performances this season and is 303 away from his second straight 1,000-yard campaign.

Now, Arizona has a pair of meetings with the Seahawks sandwiched around a road contest against the 8-2 Minnesota Vikings, beginning with a trip to Seattle this Sunday. The Cardinals have lost five consecutive matchups against the Seahawks, including a 20-10 setback in The Emerald City last season.

Seattle (5-5) got off to a strong start in 2024 winning its first three games, but has lost five of its last six after falling to the Rams 26-20 in overtime last weekend. Despite their current struggles, the Seahawks are second in the NFL in passing (260.9 yards) thanks to Geno Smith, who ranks second in the league with 2,781 yards.

The model currently says Seattle wins the NFC West 21.2% of the time, but a victory against Arizona would increase its chances to 29.4%. With a loss, however, its outlook for the division title drops to just 4.4%.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals will see their prospects rise to 60.4% with a triumph on Sunday. And even with a loss, they still would be the favorites to take the crown at 31.2%.

San Francisco is second in the league in total offense (398.9 yards) and sixth in total defense (302.2 yards allowed) but has been wildly inconsistent this season, thanks in part to a bevy of injuries to key players. It sits at 5-5 with a 21.5% chance of winning the NFC West a third consecutive time, with a victory at Green Bay (7-3) this weekend increasing its prospects to 26.7% and a defeat dropping them to 11/3%.

After losing four of their first five games this year, the Rams returned from their bye in Week 6 to win four of five and even their record. However, they currently win the division in only 9.1% of the model’s simulations and would see their chances rise to just 13.7% with a home triumph over the Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) on Sunday Night Football, while a loss would decrease them to 4.8%.

The model is calling for close contests for all four NFC West teams on Sunday, with the Arizona-Seattle showdown being one of the three games with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the 12th week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 12 NFL picks at SportsLine.