By Nick Bartlett, SuperWest Sports
Wise is the bettor who consults Nick’s No-Nonsense Betting Tips before logging on to his sportsbook.
I may not always be perfect, but if you’ve followed my advice in the past, you’re money ahead.
Every Friday in this space throughout the 2024 college football season, I give you my straight-up picks for games involving SuperWest teams.
For those who don’t know, that includes all the former Pac-12 teams, the Mountain West, plus BYU.
On rare occasions, when I blow a pick (or two), I evaluate my mistakes the following week, analyzing where I may have gone wrong.
Last week, I went 7-3. So where did I go wrong with those three losses?
Kansas had upset Iowa State and BYU the two weeks prior, so I shouldn’t have been too surprised by their upset of Colorado.
Oregon State’s takedown of WSU was probably predictable as well: Those of us who went to school there call it “Couging it,” and it happens far too often.
Fresno State hasn’t been consistent this season so the win over Colorado State was a bit of a shocker.
But enough of that. I’m still a solid 88-42 on the season, good for 68 percent.
I fully expect to be basking in the glory of success again this week—and you should, too.
As always, my selections come with incredibly accurate game scores and just enough commentary to keep me from eating too many Thanksgiving leftovers here in the South Shore District of Seattle.
My plate is almost empty, so let’s get on with the picks!
Utah State at Colorado State
Friday, November 29
12:30 pm PT, FS1
This matchup is interesting from a stylistic standpoint.
Utah State enters this contest after decimating San Diego State and Hawai’i the last two Saturdays. The Aggies have won three out of their last four contests after a 1-6 start to their season.
Colorado State finally lost in conference play falling to Fresno State on the road. The Rams were 5-0 in the Mountain West prior to The Valley.
The key to this contest should be the play of CSU quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. He will need to boss up because Rams halfback Avery Morrow is not at 100 percent, this could prove troubling after the season-ending injury to Tory Horton.
Utah State is also dealing with injury issues, except theirs is at quarterback. Spencer Petras got hurt early in the victory against San Diego State.
Petras was replaced by Bryson Barnes who pig farmed over everyone throwing for 139 yards and three touchdowns. He also added 193 yards and one touchdown on the ground.
But there are no pigs in Fort Collins and the Rams smell bacon.
CSU squeaks by.
Colorado State 31, Utah State 30
N0. 5 Notre Dame at USC
Saturday, November 30
12:30 pm PT, CBS
This game feels like a potential upset. USC has nothing to lose.
The Trojans secured a bowl bid with their win over rival UCLA last week so they’re playing “Free as a bird now.” SC is also riding a hot streak having won two in a row entering this contest.
Notre Dame has run through every team recently, and hasn’t played a competitive game since their matchup against Louisville. The Fighting Irish can secure a spot in the College Football Playoff with a victory against the Trojans.
The key to this contest is whether USC can hang with the physicality of Notre Dame. The Irish boast the 11th-best rushing attack in the nation, and if SC can’t hang in the trenches, they’ll get booted out of the Coliseum.
The Trojan defense has improved under D’Anton Lynn but stopping the sixth-ranked scoring offense should prove difficult. Jayden Maiava will be making his third start for USC and he’ll need to be better than he was a week ago.
The Trojans have a lot of talent, but the rivalry aspect of this game will keep the Irish awake.
Notre Dame wins comfortably close.
Notre Dame 42, USC 28
Cal at No. 9 SMU
Saturday, November 30
12:30 pm PT, ESPN2
Looking at the records, it would appear that Cal should get run out of Dallas. But records can prove tricky as the Golden Bears have played many ACC opponents tight this season.
Cal lost to North Carolina State by one, Miami by one, and Pitt by three.
The key for the Golden Bears in this contest is their secondary. SMU has the fifth-best scoring offense in the nation led by a passing attack that averages 261 yards per game. This is a tall ask for Cal’s 81st-ranked passing defense.
The Mustang offense is a tough unit to stop, led by quarterback Kevin Jennings and halfback Brashard Smith. Cal has a Top 20 defense against the run, so they may be able to make the Stangs one-dimensional.
Flippin the page, the Golden Bears rely heavily on quarterback Fernando Mendoza, whose game-winning touchdown drive last week may prove a good omen entering this matchup. He’s thrown for 3,004 yards, 16 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
Omen’s are powerful, but wild horses got a vibe.
SMU inches toward the College Football Playoff.
SMU 28, Cal 24
No. 16 ASU at Arizona
Saturday, November 30
12:30 pm PT, FOX
The Arizona schools have flipped spots in the college football world since the preseason. Many pundits thought Arizona could win the Big 12 title and Arizona State would finish near the bottom of the standings.
The Wildcats lost a key skill position player on offense in Jacob Cowing. Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan are phenomenal players, but the season didn’t unfold the way they expected.
Arizona was also bitten hard by the injury bug on defense, which translated into one of the worst units in the nation, allowing more than 30 points per game.
The Sun Devils are culminating a dream season and a massive turnaround. ASU beat BYU last week and has won four straight games entering this contest.
Led by quarterback Sam Leavitt and halfback Cam Skattebo, the Sun Devils also feature standout Jordyn Tyson at the receiver position.
Arizona State’s late-season surge has them ready for the College Football Playoff and Arizona’s run defense isn’t stopping Skattebo.
ASU in a heat wave.
Arizona State 35, Arizona 31
Fresno State at UCLA
Saturday, November 30
12:30 pm PT, Big Ten Network
Ioth of these squads have had up-and-down seasons.
Fresno State enters this contest after arguably their best victory of the year, knocking off Colorado State, which was previously undefeated in the Mountain West. The week prior the Bulldogs lost to Air Force.
UCLA is on a bit of a downswing. The Bruins enter this matchup after losing a close game to crosstown rival USC. Before that, the Bruins had won three out of their last four.
The key to this contest should come down to which quarterback can protect the ball. Both signal callers can make plays but have sabotaged themselves with untimely turnovers all year.
Ethan Garbers leads the attack for the Bruins, having thrown for 2.438 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Up north Mikey Keene has thrown for 2,673 yards, 17 touchdowns, and eleven interceptions.
Fresno State is always tough to beat but they don’t have the gunpowder to threaten UCLA over the top and the Bruins have a Top 10 defense against the run.
Fresno hasn’t felt threatening since Jeff Tedford stepped down, Bruins get by at home.
UCLA 38, Fresno State 20
Washington at No. 1 Oregon
Saturday, November 30
4:30 pm PT, NBC
This is a matchup that Oregon has been pointing toward all season. The undefeated Ducks have already assured themselves of a spot in the College Football Playoff, but have lost three straight to Washington and will have revenge on their minds on Saturday.
The Huskies have had an odd season but earned bowl eligibility with their victory over UCLA two weeks ago.
The key to this contest is the play of UW’s defense. The Dawgs boast a strong unit and they’ll need to keep Dillon Gabriel and the rest of Oregon’s offense reasonably in check. If UO scores 30 points or more it should prove too much for Washington to keep pace with.
Whoever starts at quarterback for the Huskies will need to protect the ball against a terrifying Top 10 Ducks defense that holds opponents to 15.7 points per game.
Both teams have standouts at running back in Jordan James and Jonah Coleman. Noah Whittington adds depth for the Ducks.
This game really is about what happened last season. The Huskies are a decent team but they’ll pay for the sins of Michael Penix Jr.
Ducks in an ass whoopin.
Oregon 42, Washington 17
Nevada at No. 22 UNLV
Saturday, November 30
5:00 pm PT, CBS Sports
Rebels, Rebels, Rebels, come out to play-ay.
UNLV has had a wonderful season and will be looking for win No. 10 against rival Nevada. The Rebels have superstars on both sides of the ball and should go out with a karate chop on Senior Night.
Ricky White, Hajj-Malik Williams, Jackson Woodard, and Jalen Catalon will all be playing their last game at Allegiant Stadium.
This team could’ve folded after their loss to Boise State but they’ve reeled off three straight wins since that defeat.
Nevada hasn’t won a game in the Mountain West this season and they haven’t won any contest since October.
The Wolf Pack rely heavily on Brendon Lewis at quarterback to do just about everything on offense. Lewis has thrown for 1,998 yards, 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions, he’s also added 745 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground.
Savion Red is a solid addition in the backfield.
Nevada has a couple of really good players but UNLV has game-changers across the cabinet shelf.
The Rebels shelf the Wolf Pack.
UNLV 38, Nevada 21
Houston at No. 19 BYU
Saturday, November 30
7:15 pm PT, ESPN
It’s been a tough two weeks for BYU. On November 15th, the Cougars were slotted as a lock for the Big 12 championship. But the Cougs lost to Arizona State last week and got upset by Kansas the week prior.
The key for BYU in this contest is to find joy in playing football. The Cougars’ competitive pride is hurting but they still have a shot at a 10-win season and the Big 12 Championship, with some help.
Jake Retzlaff struggled against Arizona State and he’ll be looking to find himself against Houston.
UH features one of the worst offenses in the nation and a sticky defense. If the red Cougars can limit Chase Roberts, they might be able to keep this game close. Darius Lassiter and LJ Martin are solid, but Roberts is their best skill-position player.
On offense, Houston hasn’t found a leader and ranks last in the nation in points scored per game.
The red Cougars match up well with the blue Cougars but they’re running into an angry team that wants to represent their fans well on Senior Night.
The blue Cougs win, bringing some energy back to Provo.
BYU 27, Houston 14
Writes about football and basketball as a Senior Writer and hosts “The Nick Bartlett Show” for SuperWest Sports.
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