Prisco’s Week 16 NFL picks: Commanders hand Eagles first loss since September, Bucs remain hot, top Cowboys

I did it.

I did it.

I did it.

I had a winning week. Finally. It’s a Christmas miracle. 

After weeks of horrible picking, so bad I even had to make fun of myself, I finally had a winning week both against the spread and straight up.

Whew.

I went 13-3 straight up to bring my season record to 141-83-0, and I went 11-5 ATS to up that record to 101-119-4. The ATS record isn’t where it needs to be, but a few more 11-5 weeks will change that.

I feel so much better now after the winning week and my confidence is growing. That means I will follow it up with another big-time week here with the picks. It’s time to build some momentum as we head to the postseason. 

Let’s go.

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)

Patrick Mahomes is hobbled with a high-ankle sprain, but he could play. If he does, it makes things a lot easier for the Chiefs. But I think they win this game whether he plays or not. If it’s Carson Wentz, the defense wins it. The Texans just haven’t been great this season. Chiefs get it. 

Pick: Chiefs 23, Texans 17

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

This is an enormous game in the AFC North. The Ravens lost to the Steelers earlier this year, but this is the time they get even. Lamar Jackson was limited in terms of production in that game, but he won’t be here. He will get the best of the Steelers defense as the Ravens make the division a race. 

Pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 20

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

The Falcons beat the Raiders on Monday night, but Kirk Cousins didn’t look good and now he’s become a very expensive backup to rookie first-rounder Michael Penix Jr. Look for Atlanta’s offense to show some spark — it can’t be much worse — while the defense will limit an undermanned Giants offense. Falcons big. 

Pick: Falcons 31, Giants 14

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

This is a long trip for the Cardinals, who are coming off a bounce-back victory to snap a losing streak, They played better in that victory over the Patriots. Carolina didn’t play well in losing to the Cowboys, but I think it plays better here as the offense gets back on track. Panthers keep it close. 

Pick: Cardinals 23, Panthers 21

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

The Lions are decimated by injuries to their defense, which will make this a challenge. The Bears are riding an eight-game losing streak and haven’t played well the past two weeks. But something says they hang around against that beaten-down Lions defense. Lions win it, but Bears stay close. 

Pick: Lions 28, Bears 24

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Colts are alive in the playoff race — barely. The Titans are done and might be making a quarterback change. The Colts did some good things in losing to the Broncos last week in a game they should have won. They bounce back here. Colts take it. 

Pick: Colts 24, Titans 17

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is a long trip for the Rams, but they are playing well. The Jets are coming off a victory over the Jaguars, and Aaron Rodgers has looked much better the past two weeks. The Jets defense has issues. Look for a lot of points here as the Jets hang around, but the Rams find a way. 

Pick: Rams 30, Jets 29

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

This is a big game in terms of the postseason. The Eagles are riding a 10-game winning steak, while the Commanders have won their last two. The Eagles are coming off a tough, physical game with the Steelers, which can wear a team down. Washington needs this game more, and it will play out that way.

Pick: Commanders 21, Eagles 20

Bonus: Shoutout to the SportsLine projection model, which also has the Commanders +3.5 as part of its best bets parlay. Check out the other four legs of the parlay at SportsLine.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Bengals still have some playoff hopes, but they would need to win out. We know they can score. The Browns have been having issues scoring. Look for Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati passing game to keep scoring a lot with the passing game again coming up big. Bengals take it. 

Pick: Bengals 31, Browns 17

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)

The Seahawks might not have quarterback Geno Smith in this game. If he does play with that injured ankle, he will be limited. That matters against a good, aggressive Vikings defense. Sam Darnold will get back on track after a so-so showing last week as Minnesota keeps pushing to the top seed. 

Pick: Vikings 30, Seahawks 21

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is the dog game of the week. The loser might end up with the first overall pick. That means it’s a win to lose. So who is the winner by losing? Give me the Raiders. The Jaguars will find a way to win this game behind a solid rushing attack. 

Pick: Jaguars 24, Raiders 20

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This is a long trip for the 49ers as they come off a disappointing home loss to the Rams. That was last Thursday, so they do get some added rest. The Dolphins are off a disappointing loss to the Texans. Tua Tagovailoa didn’t play well and I think the 49ers defense will limit him again. San Francisco takes it. 

Pick: 49ers 26, Dolphins 23

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

The Bills are riding high coming off their impressive victory over the Lions. Now back home after two road games, they get a New England team that isn’t playing well. Look for Josh Allen to keep the MVP push going as he lights up the Patriots. 

Pick: Bills 36, Patriots 17

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)

The Bucs are playing consecutive road games, which isn’t easy. But they are playing their best football. The Cowboys did some good things in beating the Panthers last week, but this is a big step up in class. The Cowboys haven’t been great at home, so look for the Bucs to keep it rolling. 

Pick: Buccaneers 27, Cowboys 20

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo try for free)

The Saints are without Derek Carr, which means it could be Jake Haener again. Plus, how focused will they be in the cold of the Green Bay night? The Packers are pushing to the playoffs and coming off an impressive showing at Seattle. They keep it going as Jordan Love has a big night. 

Pick: Packers 31, Saints 19