Prisco’s Week 18 NFL picks, plus projecting postseason field and potential Jon Gruden landing spots

Happy midweek and Happy New Year, everyone! John Breech may or may not be resting up after a night on the town sporting his Joe Burrow jersey, so today’s Pick Six newsletter is brought to you by Cody Benjamin, with tidbits on all the latest from around the NFL.

Be sure to subscribe right here, to ensure you never miss a daily dose of NFL updates. And keep on reading for everything from the latest postseason projections to big-name coaching buzz:

1. Playoff projections: Steelers-Ravens rematch?

John Breech has compiled all the latest SportsLine simulations to forecast the entire NFL playoff picture, complete with projected opening-round matchups. Here are some of the latest key takeaways:

• Denver Broncos: The Broncos’ loss to the Bengals in Week 17 has opened the door for the Dolphins or Bengals to steal the final wild-card spot in the AFC. However, for the Broncos to get this spot, all they have to do is beat a Chiefs team that will be resting its starters. The computer thinks it’ll happen.
• Minnesota Vikings: If the Vikings (14-2) lose on Sunday, that would put them in the fifth spot in the NFC, which means that despite their 14-3 record, they’d still have to open the postseason on the road. Even worse, they’d be opening on the road against a team they already lost to this season (Rams), according to our projection.
• Pittsburgh Steelers: If the Steelers (10-5) lose to the Bengals on Saturday night, there’s a good chance they’ll be staring at a third meeting with the Ravens, which would come in Baltimore during Super Wild Card Weekend. Right now, that’s what the computer is projecting, and it might not be the worst thing for the Steelers, who have already beaten the Ravens this year.

2. Top five NFL stories to watch for 2025

It’s the new year, which means it’s the perfect time to cast our gaze ahead, identifying some of the headlines destined to captivate the NFL landscape in 2025. Here’s a sampling:

• Which NFC North contenders will show up for real? No division has had more firepower this year. The Detroit Lions are a juggernaut darling. The Green Bay Packers are an 11-win team for the fourth time under Matt LaFleur. The Minnesota Vikings are quietly dominant, boasting an elite version of Sam Darnold. But who’s actually primed to make good on their promise?
• Could familiar faces lead the coaching cycle? Unlike in many years, the 2025 interview circuit may not be abundant with hot up-and-coming candidates when it comes to head coaching vacancies. In fact, some of the most buzz has circulated around aging has-beens like Rex Ryan, Ron Rivera and Pete Carroll — all of them well over 60. Even Jon Gruden is part of the discussion (more below).
• Which teams will gamble on the 2025 quarterback class? By most accounts, the crop of prospects isn’t overly encouraging, with Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders widely considered the only safe bets to go on Day 1. That begs the question: Which franchises will be convicted enough to take a swing? The New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders are perhaps most likely to do so.

3. Prisco’s Picks: Lions edge Vikings for NFC North

Pete Prisco went 12-4 making straight-up picks in Week 17. Now he’s back to close out the regular season with predictions for every single Week 18 contest. Here are a few of his most notable projections:

• Bengals 28, Steelers 23: The Bengals are still in the playoff chase, but they need to win this and get help. The Steelers will know when this kicks off if they can win the division or not, depending on what the Ravens do. But it still will impact seeding. I think Baltimore wins, and then the Bengals take this.
• Jets 23, Dolphins 20: The Dolphins need this game to have a playoff chance, but they might be without Tua Tagovailoa. This is also a second straight road game, which isn’t easy. The Jets look like they have packed it in, but maybe one more game at home against the rival will get them to play.
• Lions 34, Vikings 33: This is the game of the week, the winner getting the top seed in the NFC. Both teams can score — a lot. The difference is the Vikings have a little better defense. But the home field will be at play here and be the difference. I think the Vikings keep it close, but the Lions will win it.

4. Jon Gruden return? Logical landing spots

It’s been four years since the former Las Vegas Raiders coach held an official position on the sidelines, but NFL Media reports Gruden is drawing interest from several teams as a potential head coaching candidate ahead of the 2025 offseason. Where could the former Super Bowl champion end up? We’ve identified three potential suitors, including a franchise that employed him as a consultant in 2023:

The New Orleans Saints dismissed Dennis Allen in November, indicating they’re finally ready to rebuild. But if current management remains in place, they may revert back to their signature short-term approach. In that case, Gruden already has ties to the building, serving as a consultant during the 2023 season. He’s also admittedly close with quarterback Derek Carr, who played under him with the Raiders, though Carr’s return would almost assuredly require some kind of financial restructure.

5. Backup QB rankings: Chiefs lead playoff teams

Quarterbacks are critical to championship hopes. But which of this year’s playoff contenders are best-suited to weather an emergency under center? We ranked the backup quarterback situations of every team currently set to enter the postseason, putting these veterans atop the pecking order:

1. Carson Wentz (Chiefs): Yes, the former Philadelphia Eagles star flamed out in multiple stops due to a penchant for reckless gunslinging, but he’s still got a big frame and big arm, with almost 100 NFL games under his belt. His brief late-year action with the Los Angeles Rams to close 2023 confirmed he’s a high-upside fill-in for a contending lineup, which is exactly what the Chiefs boast.
2. Jimmy Garoppolo (Rams): The 33-year-old has yet to take a snap with the Rams, but he’s been there, done that, at nearly the highest level. Durability is an issue, especially behind an inconsistent front, but Garoppolo has proven capable of shepherding a run-first and play-action attack, reaching two NFC title games with the rival San Francisco 49ers.
3. Justin Fields (Steelers): Electric but erratic as a full-timer with the Chicago Bears, the former first-round pick calmed down as more of a ball-control operator to open his Steelers debut, going 4-2 before Russell Wilson’s entry as QB1. His athleticism alone gives him a relatively high floor, though he’s also never been asked to win such high-stakes games with his arm at the NFL level.

A big name is back on the open market ahead of the playoffs, with Dallas this week releasing its former Pro Bowl running back. The 29-year-old Elliott, who was on his second stint with the team, had taken a clear back seat to Rico Dowdle and desired a chance to join a contender for the postseason. He’s gained just 226 rushing yards on the season, averaging a career-low 3.1 yards per carry.