Race for No. 1 pick in 2025 NFL Draft: How the ‘Black Friday’ game will help determine who gets the top spot

Similar to last week, the Jacksonville Jaguars are in position to pick first when the 2025 NFL Draft happens this spring. But after a whacky Week 12, several teams slated to own top-10 picks saw their draft positions change. 

The New York Giants and Carolina Panthers each moved down three spots after losing Sunday. Conversely, the Tennessee Titans and Cleveland Browns both climbed four spots (which isn’t a good thing if you want the top pick) after upsetting the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively. These are just a few of the teams that saw their draft status shift this past weekend. 

Here’s a look at five Week 13 games that could determine the No. 1 overall pick, along with the current top of the draft order. Click here to check out which player our CBS Sports NFL Draft analysts currently have your team taking in the first round of the upcoming draft. 

The draft order below was determined using the current 2025 NFL Draft order. To check out the betting odds on who will be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, head on over to BetMGM.

For more draft coverage, you can hear in-depth analysis twice a week on “With the First Pick” — our year-round NFL Draft podcast with NFL Draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. You can find “With the First Pick” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, etc. Listen below!

Current top 10 picks

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9)
2. New York Giants (2-9) 
3. Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) 
4. New England Patriots (3-9) 
5. Carolina Panthers (3-8) 
6. Tennessee Titans (3-8) 
7. New York Jets (3-8) 
7. Cleveland Browns (3-8) 
9. New Orleans Saints (4-7) 
10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7) 

Important Week 12 games

Giants at Cowboys (Thanksgiving) 

Dallas actually fell out of the top 10 after Sunday’s upset win over the Commanders. As noted above, the Giants improved their odds at getting the top pick after they got whacked by Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers in Tommy DeVito’s first start of the season. 

New York’s rocky season will likely continue during its the final six games of the season, but as the Cowboys showed this past Sunday, anything can happen in a rivalry game. Expect the Giants to put their best foot forward Sunday agains their longtime rival. Specifically, one would think that Giants head coach Brian Daboll will try to get rookie wideout Malik Nabers involved in the offense early. 

Raiders at Chiefs (Friday) 

This year’s “Black Friday” game will pit two longtime rivals against one another. It will also be a matchup that will undoubtedly have an impact on who gets this No. 1 overall pick. 

Las Vegas has become a legitimate challenger in the race to get this year’s top pick. Its odds of doing so increased when starting quarterback Gardner Minshew was lost for the season after injuring his collarbone during this past Sunday’s to the Broncos. Minshew’s injury soured what was a solid performance for the silver and black. 

Will the Raiders (with Desmond Ridder playing in place in Minshew) put together another strong showing Friday, or will the Chiefs return to form after needing a last-second field goal to defeat the Panthers this past Sunday? We’ll find out the day after Turkey Day. 

The Chiefs may get an early Christmas gift Friday if running back Isiah Pacheco is able to play for the first time since getting injured back in Week 2. 

Texans at Jaguars 

Jacksonville is in the driver’s seat to land the top pick, but Doug Pederson’s team could be primed for an upset this Sunday. The Jaguars are coming off a bye week, and the Texans have dropped three of their last four games that includes this past Sunday’s five-point loss to the Titans. 

A big reason for Houston’s recent skid has been C.J Stroud’s dip in play. Stroud has completed more than 61% of his passes just once in his last four games. He’s also thrown more interceptions (5) than touchdown passes (3) over that span. Sunday will give Stroud a chance to get back on track, as the Jaguars are 31st in the NFL in passing yards allowed and 32nd in touchdown passes given up. 

Like Stroud, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has also had a forgettable stretch of games. He and the rest of the Jaguars’ offense scored just 13 points in their last two games entering last week’s bye. 

This has the potential to be among the most compelling games on the Week 13 slate. Tampa Bay is coming off a resounding win as it looks to keep pace with the first-place Falcons in the NFC South division race. Carolina just played arguably its best game of the season against the two-time defending champion Chiefs. 

It was an especially good game for 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, who made several big throws against Kansas City while leading his offense on six scoring drives. It’ll be interesting to see if Young and Co. can keep their momentum going against a division rival that has a lot to play for. 

If the Panthers win, expect running back Chuba Hubbard to have played a large role in said upset. Hubbard, who recently signed a contract extension, is fifth in the NFL in rushing and 11th in yards-per-carry average. 

Colts at Patriots 

Two decades ago, this was the NFL’s best rivalry. Now, it’s a matchup between losing teams, with the Patriots in the running to land the No. 1 overall pick. 

After a 4-3 start, the Colts are now 5-7 after dropping four of their last five games. Anthony Richardson’s continued erratic play has been a big reason for the Colts’ slump. The Colts have also struggled to get Jonathan Taylor going lately, as the former league rushing champ ran for 92 yards on 35 carries in the Colts’ last two games. 

While it’s been a lost year for the Patriots from a record standpoint, New England fans have gotten the chance to watch the continued growth of rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Not only has he continued to develop as a starting quarterback on the NFL level, the former No. 3 overall pick has also blossomed into a vocal leader. The Patriots may be down, but Maye and his teammates will give the Colts their best shot Sunday.